包括一小部分大型石油公司在内的28家机构对到2050年石油需求增长预测差异很大

几家大型机构认为，到2050年，化石燃料将出现温和增长

欧佩克+减产已经打破了石油需求供应的平衡，并在2023年初收紧了市场

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年4月17日报道，在正在进行的能源转型期间预测长期石油需求被比作试图在一个瓶子里捕捉闪电，不同专家的预测差异很大。包括几家大型石油公司在内的28家机构对到2050年的石油需求增长进行了预测，从美国能源信息署（+34%)和Shell Waves(+18%)的极度乐观预测，到能源观察集团(-100%)和UNPRI 1.5(-79%)的极度悲观预测。

然而，尽管预测近30年的石油需求具有挑战性，但专家们似乎无法就几个月后的石油需求达成一致。国际能源署和欧佩克秘书处等四家能源机构对今年的石油需求增长做出了预测。但他们的预测显示出相当大的分歧，唯一的共同主题是，与去年相比，四家能源机构都预计需求将增长，但都没有一年前那么乐观。

欧佩克秘书处的预测是最乐观的，预测石油需求将日增约230万桶，而国际能源署预计需求将日增200万桶。渣打银行的预测是最不乐观的，预计需求将日增130万桶，而美国能源信息署预计需求将日增140万桶。

石油供应紧张迫在眉睫

国际能源署在其最新的月度报告中警告称，石油供应紧张迫在眉睫，该机构预计，由于欧佩克+最新的减产，今年下半年将出现石油供应短缺。国际能源署预测，到今年第三季度，石油供需缺口将达到每天200万桶，这将推高油价。然而，国际能源署表示，由于欧佩克+以外国家的石油产量平均每天增加100万桶，而欧佩克+的产量每天减少140万桶，到今年年底，每天石油供应短缺数量将缩减至40万桶。

由于欧佩克+意外减产计划、美国库存下降、伊拉克库尔德地区管道供应中断以及产能大国原油产量减少，美国原油价格目前徘徊在五个月高位附近。自3月份触及低点以来，油价目前已上涨近30%，这一反弹提振了许多能源股。

过去几个月来，由于欧洲的天气比预期的要暖和，石油市场一直供过于求。去年11月，美国原油市场开始出现供应过剩的迹象，这是2022年首次出现供过于求的情况。

幸运的是，市场其他部分仍保持着一种被称为现货溢价的看涨结构，这表明熊市可能是短期的。美国商业原油库存过剩几乎消失，多头终于被证明是正确的。几个月来，全球石油市场和美国经济的健康状况一直呈现出不祥的信号，而美国能源信息署的每周报告开始呈现出明显更为积极的指标。 

然而，专家们现在乐观地认为，如果欧佩克+减产全年持续，过去两个季度的增长将在11月前消失。在稍微不那么乐观的情况下，如果目前的降息在10月左右逆转，到今年年底也将达到同样的水平。

不幸的是，天然气就不是这样了。

天然气价格继续持续下跌，此前最新天然气库存数据显示，市场供应继续充足。美国亨利中心的天然气期货价格目前为2.29美元/百万英热单位，低于年初的4.50美元/百万英热单位。美国能源信息署的每周数据显示，天然气库存为1855亿立方英尺，前一周为1830亿立方英尺，注入量增加250亿立方英尺，而前一周减少230亿立方英尺。自今年年初以来，天然气价格已经惊人地下降了50美分。

不幸的是，对看涨的人来说，短期前景仍然暗淡。NatGasWeather表示，由于需求疲软，未来几周天然气库存过剩可能会进一步扩大。尽管天气预报中出现了一些凉爽的天气系统，但最新的天气模式显示天气将趋向变暖。

值得庆幸的是，长期前景可能更为有利。欧洲未能获得足够的长期液化天然气合同，以抵消中断的管道天然气进口，路透社预测，这可能会在明年冬天证明代价高昂，并可能大幅收紧市场。欧盟将天然气视为向可再生能源过渡的过渡性燃料，买家通常很难承诺签订长期合同。这意味着欧洲可能会被迫像2022年那样从现货市场购买更多液化天然气，这反过来可能会推高价格。

分析师Morten Frisch对路透社表示：“自从欧洲的环保游说团体错误地说服政界人士，认为到2030年前，氢气在很大程度上可以取代天然气作为能源载体，欧洲已变得过于依赖现货和短期购买液化天然气。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Demand Predictions Vary Wildly Among Energy Agencies

·     Oil demand growth predictions by 28 organizations including a handful of Big Oil companies through 2050 vary wildly.

·     Several large agencies see modest growth for fossil fuels through 2050.

·     OPEC+ output cuts have tipped the balance for oil demand supply and tightened the market in early 2023.

Projecting long-term oil demand during the ongoing energy transition has been likened to trying to catch lightning in a bottle, with prognostications by different experts varying wildly. Oil demand growth predictions by 28 organizations including a handful of Big Oil companies through 2050 run the entire gamut from wildly bullish by US EIA (+34%) and Shell Waves (+18%) to deeply pessimistic by Energy Watch Group (-100%) and UNPRI 1.5 (-79%).

However, whereas projecting oil demand nearly three decades out is understandably challenging, experts cannot seem to agree on demand just months down the line. Four energy agencies including the IEA and OPEC Secretariat have made their predictions for oil demand growth in 2023. Looking at the chart below, their predictions show quite a wide degree of divergence, with the only common theme being that all four expect demand to grow compared to 2022, but all are less optimistic than they were a year or so ago.

The OPEC Secretariat is the most optimistic, and has predicted that demand will grow by some 2.3 million barrels per day while the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees demand expanding by 2.0 mb/d. On the lower end of the spectrum, Standard Chartered is the least optimistic, and sees demand growing only 1.3 mb/d while U.S.-based Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects growth to clock in at 1.4 mb/d.

Supply Crunch

In its latest monthly report, the IEA warned of a looming oil supply crunch with the agency expecting a deficit in the second half of the current year thanks to the latest OPEC+ production cuts. The agency has predicted that the gap between supply and demand will hit 2M bbl/day by Q3, which will push oil prices higher. However, IEA says the deficit will shrink to 400K bbl/day by year-end due to a production increase of 1M bbl/day from outside of OPEC+ vs. a 1.4M bbl/day decline from OPEC+.

U.S. crude is currently hovering around five-month highs thanks to OPEC+ surprise production cut plan, declining U.S. stockpiles, interruptions to pipeline supplies from Iraqi Kurdistan and weaker flows from the largger producer. Oil prices have now jumped nearly 30% since hitting March lows, a rally that has buoyed many energy stocks.

The oil markets have been oversupplied over the past few months thanks to overall weak demand following warmer than expected weather in Europe. The U.S. crude market started signaling oversupply in November, the first time supply exceeded demand in 2022.

Luckily, the rest of the market retained a bullish structure known as backwardation, an indication that the bearishness could yet be a short-term one. Well, the bulls have finally been vindicated with the surplus in U.S. commercial inventories having all but disappeared. After months of providing ominous signals about the global oil market and the health of the U.S. economy, the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) report has started sending significantly more positive indicators.

However, experts are now optimistic that the build over the past two quarters will be gone by November if OPEC+ cuts are maintained for the whole year. In a slightly less bullish scenario, the same will be achieved by the end of the year if the current cuts are reversed around October.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about natural gas.

Natural gas prices have continued their relentless slide after the latest inventory data showed the markets continue to be well supplied. Natural gas (Henry Hub) prices are currently sitting at $2.29 per MMBtu down from $4.50 per MMBtu at the beginning of the year. EIA weekly data revealed that gas stocks clocked in at 1,855 Bcf vs. 1,830 Bcf for the previous week, good for +25 Bcf injection vs -23 Bcf for the previous week. Gas prices are now down a staggering 50 since the beginning of the year.

Unfortunately for the bulls, the short-term outlook remains bleak, with NatGasWeather saying storage surpluses are likely to expand further in the coming weeks due to light demand. Although there are some cool weather systems in the forecast, the latest weather models have trended warmer.

Thankfully, the longer term outlook is likely to be more favorable. Europe has failed to secure enough long-term LNG contracts to offset cut-off the gas imports, with Reuters predicting this may prove costly next winter and could sharply tighten the market. The European Union views natural gas as a bridge fuel in the transition to renewable energy, and buyers generally struggle to commit to long-term contracts. This means that Europe might be forced to buy more from the spot markets like it did in 2022, which in turn is likely to push prices up:

"Since the green lobby in Europe has managed to persuade politicians wrongly that hydrogen to a large extent can replace natural gas as an energy carrier by 2030, Europe has become far too reliant on spot and short term purchases of LNG," consultant Morten Frisch told Reuters.