中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年2月8日报道，自2022年中期以来，全球油价一直处于动荡的下跌趋势。

这是美国银行全球研究公司在周二发给美国钻井网站的一份最新报告中所说的，并强调自去年6月初以来，油价迄今每桶已经下跌了40美元。

美银全球研究公司在报告中表示：“现在看来市场可能会继续在有限的供应损失下运营，这与许多市场观察人士的预期相悖。” 

“此外，天气变暖限制了对石油的取暖需求，并导致全球天然气价格暴跌，这可能有助于放松从2022年开始的部分天然气转石油的转型进程。这些因素导致了油价的疲软，尽管更广泛的宏观经济表现好于预期。”美国银行全球研究公司在报告中补充道。

美银全球研究公司在报告中说：“现在，布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元左右，这是欧佩克+去年年底捍卫的价格水平，如果基本面进一步恶化，可能需要欧佩克+再次这样做。”

2022年6月8日，布伦特原油价格报收于每桶123.58美元，随后在2022年12月9日跌至每桶76.1美元。今年1月23日，布伦特原油价格一度升至每桶89美元以上，但此后一直跌破每桶80美元关口。

美银全球研究公司在报告中指出，尽管油价每桶下跌了40多美元，但该公司预计美国页岩油的供应不会出现“类似于21世纪前10年观察到的”大波动。

“在过去的三年里，美国的石油公司已经成熟，不再追逐单纯产能增长，并优先考虑资本纪律、去杠杆化和股东回报。”报告中说。

“现在，在现货油价和迫使石油公司大幅削减资本支出所需的价格之间存在一个舒适的缓冲区，使这些公司对最近的调整保持更具弹性的态度。尽管如此，该行业仍然面临着中期的挑战。”报告补充说。

“第一，生产力和效率的提高似乎已经达到了顶峰。第二，油田服务部门也变得更加重视资本纪律，因为此时手握提供服务的定价权，并推动上游成本费用的上涨，因此这可能会阻碍所有加速石油产能活动的计划。第三，一级钻井库存现在似乎在明显缩小，这可能会阻碍更多的钻探活动。根据这些因素我们得出结论，页岩油生产可能在未来三到四年内达到顶峰。”

石油市场的关键

报告表示，在十多年来提供了近80%的非欧佩克供应增长并推动全球供应成本曲线（和油价）下降之后，美国的页岩油在短周期内正将石油市场的钥匙交还给欧佩克。

“从中期来看，我们认为沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和科威特的产能每天增长约300万桶，这将使他们有更大的缓冲空间来管理紧张的石油市场。”

“如果页岩油生产弹性减弱，长周期石油项目开始再次推动增长，海湾合作委员会相关国家的产能扩张就很重要。在海湾合作委员会之外，欧佩克的前景就不那么光明了。”

欧佩克动向

2月1日，欧佩克网站发布声明称：欧佩克部长级联合监督委员会（JMMC）第47次会议通过视频会议举行。委员会审查了2022年11月和12月的原油生产数据，并注意到参与的欧佩克和非欧佩克国家产能控制总体上符合减产的《合作宣言》（Doc)。

声明补充说：“JMMC成员重申了他们对《合作宣言》的承诺，该宣言将延续到2023年底，并敦促所有参与国实现完全一致并遵守补偿机制。”

上一次欧佩克和非欧佩克部长级会议于2022年12月4日通过视频会议举行。在那次会议上，OPEC+决定保持产量稳定。这次会议之前，欧佩克早在10月就决定从2022年11月开始，在2022年8月的生产水平上，将总体产量减少200万桶/日。

JMMC的下一次会议定于2023年4月3日举行，而再下一次欧佩克和非欧佩克部长级会议定于6月4日举行。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Oil Prices Have Been in Turbulent Downtrend Since Mid-2022

Global oil prices have been in a turbulent downtrend since the middle of 2022.

That’s what BofA Global Research stated in a new report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, highlighting that oil has fallen $40 per barrel since early June.

“It now appears it may continue to operate with limited supply losses, which goes against the expectations of many market watchers,” BofA Global Research said in the report.

“Furthermore, warmer weather has limited heating demand for oil and caused global gas prices to collapse, which may facilitate an unwind of some may facilitate an unwind of some gas-to-oil switching from 2022. These factors have contributed to oil price weakness, even as the broader macro has held up better than expected,” BofA Global Research added in the report.

“Now, oil prices are trading around $80 per barrel Brent, a level that OPEC+ defended late last year and may need to do again if fundamentals deteriorate further,” the company continued.

Brent closed at $123.58 per barrel on June 8, 2022, before dropping to a close of $76.1 per barrel on December 9, 2022. Brent rose to settle above $89 per barrel on January 23, but has since dipped below the $80 per barrel mark.

In the report, BofA Global Research noted that, even though oil prices have fallen by more than $40 per barrel, the company doesn’t expect a big supply swing from U.S. shale “similar to the ones observed in the 2010s”.

“In the last three years, U.S. E&Ps have matured, stopped chasing growth, and prioritized capital discipline, deleveraging, and shareholder returns,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.

“Now, a comfortable buffer exists between spot oil prices and prices needed to force oil E&Ps to significantly cut capex, making E&Ps more resilient to the recent correction. That said, the industry faces medium term challenges,” BofA Global Research added.

“First, productivity and efficiency gains appear to have peaked. Second, the oilfield service sector has also become disciplined, giving them pricing power and driving upstream inflation, which could discourage any plans to accelerate activity. Third, tier one drilling inventory now appears to be visibly shrinking, which may discourage higher activity. These factors lead us to conclude that shale oil production could peak in the next three to four years,” the company continued.

Oil Market Keys

After delivering nearly 80 percent of non-OPEC supply growth for over a decade and driving down the global supply cost curve (and oil prices), short cycle U.S. shale is now handing the oil market keys back to OPEC, namely the GCC countries, BofA Global Research said in the report.

“Over the medium term, we see around three million barrels per day of capacity growth across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, which would give them a bigger buffer to manage tight oil markets,” BofA Global Research added.

“GCC capacity expansions are important if shale elasticity fades and longer cycle oil projects start to drive growth again. Outside the GCC, OPEC’s prospects are less bright,” the company went on to state.

OPEC Meetings

On February 1, the 47th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) took place via videoconference. The Committee reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of November and December 2022 and noted the overall conformity for participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries of the Declaration of Cooperation (Doc), a statement posted on OPEC’s website noted.

“The Members of the JMMC reaffirmed their commitment to the DoC which extends to the end of 2023 as agreed in the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on 5th of October 2022, and urged all participating countries to achieve full conformity and adhere to the compensation mechanism,” the statement added.

The last OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting took place via videoconference on December 4, 2022. At that meeting, OPEC+ decided to hold production steady. The meeting followed a decision by the group back in October to cut overall production by two million barrels per day from its August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022.

The next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled for April 3, while the next OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 4.