• 欧佩克上调了其长期和中期全球石油需求预测，将此前对2023年的预测每天上调了140万桶

• 欧佩克现在预计，2023年全球石油日需求量将达到1.03亿桶，2030年将增至1.083亿桶，与此同时，欧佩克预计其市场份额将不断增加

• 经济复苏比预期更为强劲，以及全球将能源安全置于能源转型之上的转变，将推动全球石油需求增长

中国石化新闻网讯  据油价网10月31日报道，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)在周一发布的《2022年世界石油展望》报告中表示，欧佩克上调了其对全球中长期石油需求的预测。 

欧佩克在报告中说，明年全球石油日需求量将增加到1.03亿桶，比今年日增270万桶，比欧佩克去年预测的2023年需求量日增140万桶。 

欧佩克也上调了到2027年的全球中期石油需求预期，比去年的预期日增200万桶。  

欧佩克对全球石油需求的看法出现大幅变化，原因是今明两年需求复苏势头更为强劲，以及人们的关注点从能源转型转向能源安全。 

欧佩克现在预计，2030年全球石油日需求量将达到1.083亿桶，也高于去年的预测。从更长远的角度来看，欧佩克预计2045年全球石油日需求量将达到1.098亿桶，高于去年预测的1.082亿桶。 

欧佩克认为自己的市场份额在上升，但认为2027年欧佩克的产量或将低于2022年。  

在10月12日发布的备受关注的《月度石油市场报告》中，欧佩克将其对今年全球石油日需求增长的估计下调了46万桶。在这份报告中，欧佩克预计今年全球石油需求量将日增260万桶，达到日均9970万桶。欧佩克还在报告中将2023年的全球石油日需求增长预期下调36万桶，预计明年全球石油需求将日增230万桶。  

欧佩克+在10月5日举行的最新会议上同意从10月份起将原油日产量目标削减200万桶。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

OPEC Boosts Global Oil Demand Forecast

·     OPEC has increased its global oil demand forecast in both the long and medium term, revising its previous forecast for 2023 higher by 1.4 million barrels per day.

·     The group now sees oil demand hitting 103 million barrels per day in 2023 and rising to 108.3 million barrels per day in 2030, with OPEC market share increasing over that time.

·     The combination of a more robust recovery than previously expected and a global shift toward prioritizing energy security over an energy transition will drive this demand growth.

OPEC has increased its outlook for global oil demand in the medium and longer term, the group said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook released on Monday.

OPEC said in the report that global oil demand will increase to 103 million barrels per day next year—an increase of 2.7 million bpd from 2022 and an increase of 1.4 million bpd from what the group predicted for 2023 last year.

OPEC raised its oil demand outlook for the medium term as well, through 2027, increasing the outlook by 2 million bpd by the end of that period, compared to what the group forecasted last year.

The reason for the bump in how the group sees world oil demand is the more robust recovery seen this year and next, and the shift in focus from energy transition to energy security.

OPEC now sees oil demand hitting 108.3 million bpd in 2030, also up from what it forecasted for 2030 last year. In the even longer term, OPEC sees 2045 global oil demand hitting 109.8 million bpd, up from the 108.2 million bpd that it forecasted last year.

OPEC sees its own market share rising, but sees OPEC’s output lower in 2027 than in 2022.

In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that was released on October 12, OPEC revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth for 2022 by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd). In that report, OPEC saw world oil demand growing by 2.6 million bpd this year to average 99.7 million bpd. The cartel also slashed its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 in that report, by 360,000 bpd, expecting growth at 2.3 million bpd next year.

OPEC+ agreed to cut production targets by 2 million bpd at its latest meeting held on October 5.